China NEV retail sales drop 13% in early October as penetration slips to 61.2%

• NEV retail penetration in October 1-11 was below September's 67.0%, while wholesale penetration rose to 78.1%.
• Retail sales of all passenger vehicles in China totaled 459,000 in October 1-11, down 24% year-on-year.

China's new energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales extended their year-on-year decline in early October and weakened from the same period last month, underscoring a sluggish recovery in consumer demand.

Retail sales of passenger NEVs totaled 281,000 in October 1-11, down 13% year-on-year and 7% from the same period last month, according to data released Wednesday by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

Year-to-date NEV retail sales came in at 8.04 million, down 13% year-on-year.

NEV retail sales fell 16.7% year-on-year in September, marking the ninth consecutive month of declines. If sales fail to return to growth for the full month of October, it would mark the tenth straight monthly decline.

NEV retail penetration stood at 61.2% in October 1-11, below September's record 67.0% and well below the 70.3% recorded in the first 13 days of September.

NEV wholesale sales performed better than retail sales. Automakers sold 301,000 NEVs at wholesale in October 1-11, up 6% year-on-year but down 11% from the same period last month.

Year-to-date NEV wholesale sales reached 11.75 million, up 9% year-on-year. Wholesale penetration rose to 78.1%, reflecting continued strength in exports.

Retail sales of all passenger vehicles in China totaled 459,000 in October 1-11, down 24% year-on-year but up 7% from the same period last month.

Year-to-date passenger vehicle retail sales were 13.79 million, down 22% year-on-year.

In the first week of October, from October 1 to 7, daily retail sales averaged 32,651 vehicles, down 25% year-on-year and 10% from the same period in September. The week coincided with the National Day holiday.

In the second week, from October 8 to 11, daily retail sales averaged 57,589 vehicles, down 22% year-on-year but up 32% from the same period in September.

China's passenger vehicle wholesale sales totaled 385,000 in October 1-11, down 18% year-on-year and 15% from the same period last month.

Year-to-date passenger vehicle wholesale sales were 20.12 million, down 6% year-on-year.

Daily wholesale sales averaged 20,582 vehicles in October 1-7, down 32% year-on-year and 44% from the same period last month.

In October 8-11, daily wholesale sales were 60,246 vehicles, down 7% year-on-year but up 23% from the same period last month.

With the Mid-Autumn Festival falling in late September, October has more effective selling days, and showroom traffic has continued to recover modestly, the CPCA said.

National Day auto shows, local subsidies and automakers' peak-season promotions have jointly supported October's auto market, though the recovery remains relatively mild, the CPCA said.

In the first 2 weeks of October, production of gasoline-powered vehicles fell 51%, while wholesale sales dropped 53%, weighing on automakers' overall sales.

The CPCA reiterated that most NEV brands currently lack strong-selling models, but automakers still need to maintain steady production.

Sales and direct-sales orders at most automakers have become target-driven, with sales goals for certain models needing to be met even in the absence of order backlogs. This led to a slight improvement in automakers' direct retail sales in the first 2 weeks and an unusually high NEV penetration rate, the CPCA said.

The CPCA previously forecast that NEV penetration would remain above 65% in October, as trade-in subsidies this year are weighted toward the latter part of the year, contrasting with their gradual phaseout in October last year.