T&E: Chinese truckmakers could take a quarter of Europe's electric truck market by 2030
Summary
Transport & Environment warns that Chinese entrants could capture up to 25% of the EU heavy electric truck market by 2030, matching European models on range, charging and payload at up to 12% lower total cost of ownership. The analysis urges Europe not to slow electrification, warning that US and Chinese rivals are already entering the market and could erode the position of legacy truckmakers like Daimler, Traton and Volvo.
It’s no secret that European (and US and Japanese) automakers and truckmakers have fallen far behind their Chinese competitors, even as they continue to lobby against emissions regulations and other measures designed to force them to catch up. Now Transport & Environment has put some numbers to the ongoing market shift.
The EU heavy truck market, which amounts to around 245,000 vehicles annually, is dominated by a small group of legacy truckmakers: Daimler Truck, Traton, IVECO, DAF and Volvo Group. Zero-emission trucks accounted for 5.6% of sales in the EU countries in 2025, double the figure from a year earlier (over 15% in Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands).
T&E predicts that new entrants could capture a big part of the market quickly by offering comparable quality at lower prices—and Chinese truckmakers have announced plans to do just that. Based on stated goals, they hope to grab up to a quarter of the heavy e-truck market by 2030.
European truckmakers aren’t standing still—they’re steadily improving their electric trucks—but T&E’s research finds that Chinese EVs perform as well as European trucks on key metrics, including driving range, charging time, maximum payload and energy efficiency—and deliver a total cost of ownership that can be as much as 12% lower. This can be a game-changer in the haulage sector, where profit margins can be between 1.5-2%, according to T&E.
The Chinese aren’t the only wolves at the Europeans’ door. Tesla has announced plans to bring its Semi to Europe, and it’s been logging major sales at much lower prices than its US competitors can offer.
“Competitive Chinese and US truck models are already in the European market, and many more are poised to enter soon,” said Stef Cornelis, Director of Freight and Fleets at T&E. “This is a critical moment for Europe’s trucking industry, which should learn from what has happened to the car industry. Weakening the pace of electrification now would present an opportunity for US and Chinese competitors to gain a significant share of the market, in Europe and the rest of the world.”
Source: Transport & Environment
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