Elon Musk's Political Spending Becomes a Referendum on Transgender Rights in 2026 Midterms

US voters rarely, if ever, get a chance to vote on someone whose name is not on the ballot, but this year is an exceptional one with Tesla CEO Elon Musk throwing millions at key races. In years past, Musk’s seal of approval would be a planet-saving badge of climate action honor for candidates seeking office. Now he’s just another highly privileged crank exercising his outsized financial power against transgender rights. Who’d a thunk it?

Elon Musk And The Vast Right Wing Conspiracy Against Transgender Rights

Coincidentally or not, Elon Musk’s highly personal vendetta against transgender rights has materialized against the backdrop of a corresponding focus in Republican Party campaign strategy, with one early hint being his “pronouns suck” message on Twitter in July of 2020.

Musk went on to buy Twitter and rename it “X” in 2022, and the rest is transphobic history.

Also coincidentally or not, the Republican Party has been hammering against human and civil rights for generations, but the razor-sharp focus on transgender persons did not bloom into full flower until 2021, after US President Donald Trump lost his first bid for re-election.

In the aftermath of Trump’s failed insurrection of January 6, the Party alighted upon transgender rights as a powerful tool in a coordinated campaign strategy aimed at ginning up the fevered emotions of voters already besotted with US President Trump’s “MAGA” propaganda during his first term in office.

In addition to working the conservative aisle of the US Supreme Court, the anti-transgender movement has focused on legislation introduced by state lawmakers (looking at you, Florida). Among the LGBTQ+ organizations tracking the bills is the organization is the Human Rights Campaign, which has identified a distinct shift in anti-transgender strategy during the 2020 campaign cycle.

Transgender Rights As A Campaign Strategy

All else being equal, transgender persons are an unlikely target for a national political campaign. According to one study, self-identified transgender persons over the age of 13 make up just 1% of the US population, with much of the self-reporting cohort under age 35. As for the much-ballyhooed danger of transgender-related surgery on minors, that is vanishingly rare to the point of not occurring at all according to a 2024 Harvard study. Somewhat ironically, the same study found a “substantially higher” rate of sex-affirming surgery among non-transgender minors and adults.

For that matter, Elon Musk is known to have availed himself of body-affirming treatments as an adult, but that’s a whole ‘nother can of worms.

Regardless of the numbers, the political payoff for anti-transgender activism is substantial. Prior to 2020, Republicans did not focus narrowly on transgender rights. Their attacks were a broad barrage against marriage equality for LGBTQ+ couples, as part of a relgion-centric campaign to eliminate legal and constitutional protections. Although this type of legislation continues to appear in statehouses, HRC identified a sharp rise in the number of bills specifically attacking transgender rights during the 2020 campaign cycle. The organization summarized its findings in a report last year, stating that “opponents of LGBTQ+ equality explicitly – and admittedly – began attacking transgender youth” (emphasis added).

In the report, HRC takes note of ADF (formerly Alliance Defending Freedom) and other anti-LGBTQ+ organizations serving as “bill mills,” that funnel pre-written legislation to state lawmakers in a coordinated campaign. So, if you’re wondering why gender-related health care for minors became such a hot button issue during the 2024 election cycle, alongside transgender participation in youth sports, there’s your answer.

Although some Democrats also contributed a share to the hate fest, the bulk of the coordinated anti-transgender campaign that poured out of state legislatures in 2021, and the following years, is credited to Republican lawmakers.

The Great Backfiring

The anti-transgender strategy exceeded expectations in the 2024 election cycle, aided by a late-stage change in the Democratic ticket. Podcaster Joe Rogan among other Trump-endorsing influencers are also credited with swinging the Gen Z (ages 18-29) vote to the Republican Party, with spectacular results.

The public mood has soured since then, to say the least. Most people may or may not ever encounter a transgender person in their whole life, but they encounter Trump every time they go to fill up their car with gas.

Still, with the well known anti-transgender activist Elon Musk contributing almost half a billion dollars (and counting) to support Republican candidates in key races around the country, transgender rights are still on the ballot — and now the whole strategy is backfiring.

CleanTechnica’s Carolyn Fortuna took note of the Great Backfiring over the weekend, observing that “Musk’s blatant attempts to influence election results are getting a lot of recent analysis and condemnation.”

“US Federal Election Commission data revealed this week that Elon Musk has donated at least $445 million into Republican-aligned political action committees and groups since last year. Interestingly, it seems that Musk’s deep influence isn’t enough, and he is worried,” Fortuna explained.

“If Democrats win big on Tuesday in midterm elections, Musk insists US democracy will come to an ‘end,” she continued, citing this message on X last Friday, October 30, from Elon Musk:

“This would result in America becoming a permanent one-party state and the end of democracy in any meaningful sense of the word. All that is needed to ensure this doesn’t happen is 51 Republican senators in 2029.”

Yikes! Grab those pearls and clutch’em.

Despite Musk’s millions, the effort is having little effect in the run-up to Election Day. Take Texas, for example, where Musk has devoted his millions, and his amplified voice, working the anti-transgender message to support Ken Paxton for US Senate against the Democratic candidate James Talerico.

Don’t just take my word for it. The well known independent journalist Judd Legum is among those taking notice. “Musk is blanketing the internet with digital ads falsely accusing Democratic Senate candidates of supporting ‘taxpayer-funded sex changes for kids,’” Legum reported on September 23.

Another Black Eye For Tesla

In Texas, the attack ads are just one prong of a transgender-centric attack strategy that includes raising “questions” about Talerico’s sexual identity. The Talerico campaign, for one, is having none of it. They are turning the anti-transgender strategy back on Musk. Nothing will be certain until the dust settles after election day, but so far Musk’s millions have failed to move the needle for Paxton in Texas, where according to late breaking polls Talerico leads by a slim margin.

As reported by Houston Public Media, Talerico has been regularly blasting Musk’s influence in the Texas midterms in campaign speeches, tying the world’s richest man to a Republican candidate who drags a considerable amount of scandal and corruption baggage.

As for Musk’s interest in Tesla, not to worry. Despite Elon Musk’s personal and political baggage, the iconic automotive startup continues to hold the #1 position in EV sales in the US by a wide margin. On the other hand, General Motors and Ford are rebooting their EV efforts in anticipation of a friendlier political environment next year and beyond. Other legacy automakers, including Toyota and Subaru, have also introduced new EV models to the US market this year. In addition, Rivian and other pure play EV startups are contributing to the rising competition against Tesla for EV sales in the US. Hold on to your hats…

Photo: Elon Musk showcasing the Tesla Cybertruck (via CleanTechnica archive).