Li Auto's updated i6 SUV tops 50,000 orders as Deutsche Bank forecasts year-end delivery rebound

• Deutsche Bank expects Li Auto's November deliveries to rebound above 40,000 vehicles, including 16,000 to 20,000 Li i6 SUVs.
• Battery capacity and range upgrades help ease consumer concerns over the in-house Lianshan battery.

Deutsche Bank estimates that cumulative orders for Li Auto's (NASDAQ: LI) updated Li i6 electric SUV have surpassed 50,000, providing support for a year-end delivery recovery as production ramps up.

The latest dealer checks indicate delivery wait times of 9 to 11 weeks for the Li i6, pointing to a substantial order backlog, analyst Wang Bin's team said in a research note on Tuesday.

Those wait times, combined with the company's plan to increase monthly production capacity to 20,000 vehicles in November, support the bank's estimate of more than 50,000 cumulative orders for the updated Li i6.

Li Auto launched the 2026 Li i6 on October 28 and began deliveries the following day, upgrading the model with its in-house chips, battery and cabin features while keeping the starting price unchanged.

The model has an official starting price of 249,800 yuan ($37,190). Under the launch offer announced at its rollout, customers purchasing by November 30 can access a limited-time price of 239,800 yuan.

Li Xinyang, head of Li Auto's product line, said on October 30 that the company planned to raise Li i6 production capacity to 20,000 vehicles in November, with a further increase in December. He put delivery wait times at 7 to 8 weeks at the time.

The order buildup comes as Li i6 deliveries fell during the model changeover. The SUV delivered 1,977 vehicles in October, down 73.21% from September and accounting for 6.81% of the company's monthly deliveries, according to data compiled by CnEVPost.

Li i6 deliveries totaled 162,198 vehicles in the first 10 months of the year, underscoring the 5-seat electric SUV's role as a major contributor to Li Auto's delivery volume.

Li Auto's total October deliveries fell 8.63% year-on-year to 29,025 vehicles, the lowest since February. The company produced 37,908 vehicles during the month, with the gap largely reflecting the production transition for the updated Li i6, Deutsche Bank said.

With production bottlenecks easing and promotional incentives providing support, Deutsche Bank expects Li Auto's November deliveries to rebound above 40,000 vehicles, including 16,000 to 20,000 Li i6 SUVs.

Sales staff at dealerships visited by the bank expect monthly Li i6 sales to gradually recover to around 20,000 vehicles over November and December.

Dealer feedback indicates that sales staff view Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Model Y, Xiaomi's (HKEX: 1810) YU7 and the Zeekr 7X as the updated Li i6's main competitors, with its intelligent cockpit and cabin comfort among the key draws for prospective buyers.

The updated Li i6 features a Qualcomm Snapdragon 8797 cockpit chip, dual front zero-gravity seats with 18-point massage, and Li Auto's in-house Mach M100 driver-assistance chip as standard.

Some consumers have concerns about the Li i6's use of Li Auto's in-house Lianshan battery instead of CATL (HKEX: 3750) batteries, though dealer feedback suggests customer acceptance has been encouraging, Deutsche Bank said.

The updated Li i6 uses a 96-kWh Lianshan 5C lithium iron phosphate battery, increasing the rear-wheel-drive version's CLTC range to 780 kilometers (485 miles). Deutsche Bank believes the battery capacity and range upgrades help ease consumer concerns.

Among other models, the bank's checks indicate delivery wait times of 10 to 12 weeks for the Li Mega MPV (multi-purpose vehicle) and 4 to 6 weeks for the Li i9, while the Li i8, Li L9 and Li L8 are available with virtually no wait.

Li Auto recently doubled insurance subsidies for its mature models to 10,000 yuan from 5,000 yuan to stimulate sales, Deutsche Bank said. Those promotions, alongside the Li i6 production ramp-up, underpin its forecast for a November delivery recovery.

Deutsche Bank also expects Li Auto's overall gross margin to rise 6.7 percentage points from the previous quarter to 16.7% in the third quarter, with its net loss narrowing about 80% to 300 million yuan, better than the consensus estimate of a 942 million yuan loss.

The bank maintained its price target of HK$76 and said it would continue monitoring demand for the L-series extended-range models and the Li i6 delivery ramp-up to assess the prospects for a recovery in volume and margins heading into 2027.