Tesla Robotaxi Expansion: Nevada Approves up to 5,000 Vehicles, But Reality Lags Musk's Vows

Tesla has had more good news regarding its robotaxi rollout this past week.

Nevada has decided that the company can deploy up to 5,000 robotaxis in the state, up from just 10 on the Las Vegas Strip. That’s a huge potential increase in vehicles. However, “Tesla representatives at the meeting said they have no intention of putting 5,000 cars on the road right away,” Teslarati reports. “Commercial rides are expected to start within 30 days, pending vehicle inspections, insurance filings, and fare approval, the standard steps every robotaxi operator in Nevada has had to clear.”

Elsewhere, one reason being provided for why Tesla hasn’t rolled out more Model Y robotaxis is now that the company feels confident about scaling up Cybercab production and it would like to wait and deploy those rather than Model Ys. Perhaps that sounds sensible, but this story combined with the one above made me think again about Elon Musk’s prediction for Tesla robotaxi deployment in 2025.

As you may recall, in the middle of last year, Musk forecasted that Tesla robotaxis would cover half of the US population by the end of 2025. We’re already well past the first half of 2026, and nowhere near 10%, let alone 50%, of the US population is covered by robotaxi service.

Normally, when we do check-ins on this topic, we just note that the target has been missed by a mile — or hundreds of miles — and may also note that such targets have been missed for about a decade. However, today, I want to frame it a little differently. As the headline says, I just wanted to ask, who was right about Tesla robotaxi deployment in 2025? Was it Elon Musk? Or was it people saying Tesla tech wasn’t ready for that? For that matter, who as right in 2024, or in 2023, or in 2022, or in 2021?…

Musk always gets a pass from millions of people and gets seen as THE #1 expert on the topic. The assumption is always that the targets were missed, yeah, but Tesla’s just a bit late and the company will reach those targets this year. It’s gotten funny how many times that has happened.

Tesla has started offering Cybercab rides to select customers. The company has opened a sweepstakes to get the chance to be one of those select few. Is this a sign it’s all about to change for the better on this topic? Or is this another teaser that is designed to look like significant progress is being made even though the technology is nowhere near ready for mass deployment? One does have to wonder.