China NEV retail sales hit 1.11 million in September, penetration reaches record 65.7%

• Passenger NEV retail sales are expected to rise about 10.5% in September from August, with their share of total passenger car sales reaching 65.7%.
• Overall passenger car retail sales are forecast to fall 24.6% from a year earlier, marking a weaker September peak season than in previous years.

China's retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to rebound in September from August, driven by a quarter-end sales push and deliveries of new models.

The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said on Thursday that it expects passenger NEV retail sales to reach about 1.11 million this month, up about 10.5% from 1.005 million in August.

NEVs are forecast to account for 65.7% of passenger car retail sales, surpassing August's record 65.2%.

Still, the projected NEV sales figure would represent a 14.35% decline from a year earlier, widening from August's 10% drop.

The broader auto market also remains weak. The CPCA expects passenger car retail sales of about 1.69 million in September, up 9.7% from August but down 24.6% from a year earlier.

The high comparison base of 2.241 million sales last September would widen the year-on-year decline from August's 23.6%.

Leading automakers accounting for more than 70% of total market sales have set September retail targets less than 10% above August's levels, weaker than the usual seasonal pattern at quarter-end, the CPCA said.

September typically marks the start of China's peak car-buying season, but consumer expectations and market fundamentals have shown no fundamental improvement, according to the CPCA.

Major automakers' daily passenger car retail sales averaged 35,000 in the first week of September, down 19.4% from a year earlier and 0.5% from the corresponding period in August.

The daily average rose to about 44,000 in the second week as peak-season promotions began, up 7.5% from the corresponding period in August but down 25.8% from a year earlier.

The CPCA expects daily retail sales to average about 56,000 in the third week, down 12.9% from a year earlier but up 23.2% from the corresponding period in August.

Daily sales in the fourth week, which has fewer working days because of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, are forecast at 70,000, down 24.4% from a year earlier but up 13.6% from the same period in August.

In the fifth week, daily retail sales are expected to reach 96,000 as demand builds ahead of the National Day holiday and automakers push to meet quarterly targets. That would be down 38.1% from a year earlier but up 31.3% from the same period in August.

Autos remain a major drag on China's spending on big-ticket items. Total retail sales of consumer goods rose 1.1% from a year earlier in the first 8 months of this year, while auto retail sales fell 13.9%, a widening decline.

Volatile and rising fuel prices have severely constrained a recovery in demand for gasoline-powered vehicles, the CPCA said.

NEVs, by contrast, have a substantial order backlog, with new demand and deliveries of previously delayed new models expected to support sales.

Trade-in incentives and local subsidies are continuing at their current pace, providing a floor for the September market, the CPCA said.